Conservatives are facing worst general election result in party’s history and could win just 130 seats, polling expert says

The Conservatives are headed for their worst election defeat in history, which could leave them with just 130 seats, according to a prominent polling expert.

Sir John Curtis, professor of political science at the University of Strathclyde, says Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has had a turbulent autumn after multiple attempts to bolster his premiership failed to improve his standing with voters.

The Prime Minister, who took office on October 25 last year after Liz Truss’ disastrous 44 days in No 10, has so far failed to improve his election prospects despite attempts to appease the Tory right on a number of fronts.

Gestures such as delaying a ban on new petrol cars, abandoning the expensive northern section of the HS2 project, cuts to national insurance spending and last month’s dramatic reshuffle have failed to attract supporters.

Sir John suggested the public had “stopped listening” to what the Tories had to say and believed they could be headed for an election failure. YouGov and Ipsos polls show Labor ahead of the Tories by around 20 points.

The Conservatives are heading for their worst ever election result under Rishi Sunak, according to a polling expert.

Professor Sir John Curtice of the University of Strathclyde warned that the Tories fighting among themselves were “potentially playing with fire”.

“If these patterns were replicated in a general election, the result for the Conservatives could be really dismal – perhaps just 130 seats, the worst result in the party’s history,” he said Telegraph.

He added that ongoing infighting within the Tory party, exacerbated by the sacking of Suella Braverman, a favorite on the party’s right, and Robert Jenrick’s departure as immigration secretary, would do little to improve her image among voters.

Sir John said: “By disagreeing with Mr Sunak over immigration, Tory MPs need to realize they are potentially playing with fire.”

Mr Sunak has used recent weeks to try to revive his party’s success, from scrapping the northern link of HS2 from Birmingham to Manchester to a two per cent cut to national insurance in the autumn statement.

He also sought to appease the conservative right by delaying zero-emissions policies, including a ban on new gasoline cars, and countering “woke” culture.

Early next week he will test his party’s loyalty with a crucial vote on Rwanda’s emergency legislation, which will seek to declare in UK law that the country is safe for asylum seekers – despite the courts ruling it is not.

However, none of these measures have reassured voters, who ranked more pressing issues such as the cost of living crisis and the state of the NHS as more important, according to a Survation poll last month.

According to current legislation, general elections must take place before the end of January 2025.

Winning just 130 seats would spell disaster for the Conservatives, who returned to government under Boris Johnson in 2019 with 365 seats. He now has 350 MPs in the House of Commons.

Polls like the one by YouGov (above) have given Labor a consistent double-digit lead over the Tories for more than a year.

That would be fewer than the 165 Conservative MPs returned in 1997 when Tony Blair defeated New Labour.

Current voting intention polls show the party’s electoral prospects showing little improvement.

A YouGov poll taken on 7 December showed the Tories on 22 per cent, trailing Labor on 45 per cent. We Think polls taken around the same time showed Labor on the same figure, but the Conservatives at just above 25 per cent.

Despite this, the gap between Labor and the Tories has remained in double digits for more than a year.