The diagrams that show how support for Joe Biden and Donald Trump has shifted in three key battleground states: Flow charts reveal voters looking for alternatives
With less than a year to go, both Joe Biden and Donald Trump are seeing their complex voter coalitions crumble amid the chaos of other candidates vying for attention.
A state poll conducted for DailyMail.com shows how voters of two likely 2024 candidates have changed their positions since the 2020 vote.
The headline says Biden is trailing Trump, the front-runner for the Republican nomination, in Arizona and Georgia but has an advantage in Wisconsin.
But these three flowcharts show how and why the president is losing support.
In Arizona, where both candidates’ votes are declining, Biden lost 13 percentage points while Trump lost just seven points.
JL Partners surveyed 550 likely voters in each of the three battleground states. The results can be used to determine who wins and who loses among voters. With less than a year to go, they show Joe Biden losing support in Arizona among other candidates.
Trump leads Biden in national opinion polls with nearly a year to go. But state-by-state polls, especially in key battlegrounds, provide a clearer picture of the Electoral College results.
In Georgia, a once deep red state now turning blue, his 2020 supporters don’t know what to do.
Some have moved from Biden to “don’t know” as they weigh questions about the economy in a state where Trump-backed challengers performed worse last year, failing to unseat the Republican governor and Democratic senator.
But in Wisconsin the picture is reversed. It is Trump who is seeing his 2020 coalition increasingly fray, with former Democratic nominee-turned-independent and anti-vaxxer Robert Kennedy Jr. becoming the main beneficiary.
The results are based on a survey of 550 likely voters in each state conducted by JL Partners from November 27 to December 1.
“The Biden-Trump coalitions are fragmenting compared to 2020,” said James Johnson, co-founder of JL Partners.
“But Biden is losing more support than Trump in Arizona and Georgia: among undecided voters, and in Arizona there are also some who switched directly to Trump.”
“The Trump coalition is falling apart more in Wisconsin.
“He lost some voters to undecideds and other candidates—with RFK getting six times as many votes from Trump as he did from Biden.”
In Georgia, Biden lost 11 points, with some saying they didn’t know how they would vote.
The situation is different in Wisconsin, where Robert Kennedy Jr. could have a decisive influence in turning voters away from Trump.
In Wisconsin, the nephew of US President John F. Kennedy polls six percent of likely voters.
Kennedy’s influence could be a deciding factor in the 2024 elections.
National polls show he generally enjoys more support from Trump.
Dislike of both major candidates and fatigue at the thought of a repeat of 2020 is evident in all three flowcharts.
Trump and Biden have significantly less support than in 2020, with potentially decisive figures saying they don’t know who they will vote for or say they would favor someone else.
The overall results show Joe Biden is at risk of losing two states that helped him win in 2020.
Robert Kennedy Jr.’s support stands at six percent in Wisconsin, eating into Trump’s vote share and helping Biden maintain his lead in the state.
Hardly anyone said that they would sit out completely.
These three states were chosen because they were the most intense battlegrounds in 2020.
Biden, for example, flipped Georgia by a razor-thin margin: He received 11,000 more votes than Trump, or about 0.2 percent of turnout.
Biden carried Arizona by just 10,500 votes, or 0.4 percent.
And he won Wisconsin by just over 20,000 votes, or about 0.63 percent.