Trump IS the most electable Republican after all: Blow for DeSantis and Haley before final debate as Daily Mail poll reveals ex-president is best placed to BEAT Biden in crucial states of Georgia and Arizona
Former President Donald Trump is the Republican candidate best positioned to defeat Joe Biden in the critical swing states of Arizona and Georgia, but Nikki Haley could defeat the Democratic nominee in Wisconsin, according to an exclusive DailyMail.com/JL Partners poll.
The results undermine one of Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and Haley’s key arguments: They are more electable than Trump.
In fact, our polling of swing states shows that while Trump leads Biden by five points in Arizona, DeSantis can only tie the game, with Haley trailing by two points.
In Georgia, Trump leads Biden head-to-head by two points, but DeSantis trails by six points and Haley trails by one.
Things are different in Wisconsin. There, Biden would lead Trump and DeSantis by four points if the 2024 election were held tomorrow, but would lose to Haley by one percentage point.
JL Partners surveyed 550 likely voters in each of three key swing states: Arizona, Georgia and Wisconsin. The results have a margin of error of 4.2 percent.
Trump leads Biden in national opinion polls with nearly a year to go. But state-by-state polls, especially in key battlegrounds, provide a clearer picture of the Electoral College results.
All results have a margin of error of 4.2 percentage points but show that in at least two key battlegrounds, Trump is Biden’s strongest Republican challenger.
“These are good results for the Trump campaign: Trump has a better chance of beating Biden in both Arizona and Georgia,” said James Johnson, co-founder of JL Partners, which conducted the poll.
“However, Haley can be encouraged by the results in Wisconsin. While DeSantis and Trump trail Biden, Haley brings Biden to a near tie with independents and therefore claims the state by one point overall.
“DeSantis looks a little out of sorts in these results: He fails to mobilize the GOP base to the extent that Trump does, but he also falls short of Haley’s numbers among independents.”
Haley and DeSantis will meet Wednesday in Tuscaloosa, Alabama, for the fourth Republican debate.
They are fighting for second place behind Trump.
Haley has gained momentum in recent weeks with strong debate performances and key endorsements.
She leaned toward the idea that Trump was a divisive politician.
“We have to face the fact that Trump is the most disliked politician in America,” she said during the first debate in Milwaukee. “We can’t win the general election this way.”
Trump leads Biden in Georgia (where the Democrat won by just 0.2 percentage points in 2020), but Haley and DeSantis are trailing in our 2024 intentions poll.
Haley and DeSantis clashed repeatedly at last month’s third Republican debate in Miami, Florida, as they seek to position themselves as a better alternative to Trump.
There’s good news for Haley from Wisconsin. Our polling shows that if the election were held tomorrow, she would beat Biden head-to-head, while DeSantis and Trump would lose.
Last week she secured the support of the powerful Koch network, which has a large war chest for conservative candidates.
“Nikki Haley at the top of the ticket will push candidates up and down the ballot, winning key independents and moderate voters that Trump has no chance of winning,” the group Americans for Prosperity said.
To test this point, JL Partners surveyed 550 likely voters in three key swing states. They were asked who they might vote for in a general election that pitted Biden against Trump, DeSantis or Haley in a head-to-head matchup.
The polling highlights her strengths and weaknesses: While Haley is doing better than other Republicans with Democratic voters and independents, Trump’s former UN ambassador is losing a potentially decisive share of the 2020 Republicans.
Our flowcharts illustrate how this works. In Arizona, Trump won 48 percent of the vote in 2020, but as things stand, Haley will only get 36 percent of the vote (12 points less than the former president in a head-to-head matchup with Biden this time around).
Some losing voters say they simply won’t turn out in 2024 if she’s on the ballot.
However, Haley is a less influential factor for Biden supporters on the ballot than Trump. That leaves Biden with only 38 percent against her and 43 percent against the more polarizing figure Trump.
Things are different in Wisconsin. There, she appears to be attracting enough alumni to unseat Biden.
In our polling, Haley is losing members of Trump’s base, but winning over some outright Biden supporters and reducing turnout for the Democratic candidate. That could be enough to win in Wisconsin.
Four candidates are scheduled to take the stage at the fourth Republican debate in Tuscaloosa, Florida, on Wednesday (from left): Chris Christie, Ron DeSantis, Nikki Haley, Vivek Ramaswamy.
DeSantis has also tried to position himself as a Republican candidate who doesn’t have the baggage that turns off independent voters. He can point to last year’s convincing win in Florida as proof he’s a winner.
“Donald Trump is a much different guy than he was in 2016,” DeSantis said during the third Republican debate in Miami last month, a day after the GOP’s disappointing election results.
“He said Republicans would get tired of winning. Well, we saw (Tuesday) night how tired I am of losing to the Republicans. In Florida, I showed how it’s done.”
The pair have stepped up their attacks on each other this week as they prepare for the fourth debate.
DeSantis used the Newsmax TV interview to claim that Haley was not a true conservative, while her spokesman responded that he was lying to try to jumpstart the failed campaign.