Trump leads Biden in two of three key swing states: Former president is up in Georgia and Arizona while Democrat is on course to hold Wisconsin
A year before the 2024 election, Donald Trump leads Joe Biden in two of the three most battleground states amid doubts over the economy and border security, according to an exclusive DailyMail.com poll.
Trump leads Biden by five points in Arizona and three points in Georgia.
However, Biden leads his likely opponent in Wisconsin in 2024 by five percentage points.
All three gave their Electoral College votes to Trump in 2016 and went to Biden in 2020.
The outcome of the 2024 election could depend on who wins these key states.
JL Partners surveyed 550 voters in Arizona, Georgia and Wisconsin. The results show Joe Biden is at risk of losing two states that helped him win in 2020.
The three states chosen had the smallest differences in 2020. Each backed Trump in 2016, but Biden reversed them in 2020, helping him win the Electoral College 306 to 232.
READ MORE: Charts showing how support for Joe Biden and Donald Trump has changed in three key battleground states.
But Biden now must rally his coalition in Arizona, where Trump leads among Latino voters, and in Georgia, where independents are turning to the former president.
Overall, the results show Biden is in trouble, said James Johnson, co-founder of JL Partners, which conducted the poll for DailyMail.com.
“Trump is leading by wide margins in two states that Biden cannot afford to lose—Arizona and Georgia,” he said.
“With a strong showing among his base and a lead among independents in two states, Trump is the early favorite.
“While Biden still has women and graduates, as well as black voters, on his side, Trump is closing the gap with the latter group, as well as with Latinos.
“On the other hand, Biden can take heart from holding Wisconsin by a larger margin than he did in 2020.”
“Is there a new pattern of play where Trump makes gains in states with more diverse electorates while white women remain on Biden’s side?”
JL Partners surveyed 550 likely voters in each of three states, using landlines, text messages and apps to ask questions.
In Georgia, 39 percent said they would vote for Trump if the election were held tomorrow, compared with 34 percent who preferred Biden.
That advantage is driven in part by independents, who are polling 30 percent to 24 percent in favor of Trump over Biden.
Trump leads in Arizona and Georgia, but trails Biden in Wisconsin
Trump leads Biden in national opinion polls with nearly a year to go. But state-by-state polls, especially in key battlegrounds, provide a clearer picture of the Electoral College results.
Biden won the state by a razor-thin margin in 2020, with 11,000 more votes than Trump, or about 0.2 percent of turnout.
It’s a similar picture in Arizona, where 39 percent said they would support Trump, compared with 36 percent who preferred Biden.
Trump has the support of 31 percent of black voters — long a base for Democratic politicians and Biden in particular — far above the national figure. He also wins 37 percent of Latino voters, compared to Biden’s 34 percent.
In 2020, Biden won by just 10,500 votes, or 0.4 percent.
Wisconsin’s results offer insight into Biden’s campaign.
The president leads Trump 37 percent to 32 percent, and his coalition of college-educated and minority voters is holding up better than the other two states, helped by Robert Kennedy Jr.’s six-point lead.
However, it still marks a notable turnaround from 2020, with Biden now trailing in more diverse states and holding a lead in only the whitest of the three states.
And it shows Trump remains a formidable election opponent despite four criminal charges this year.
The main findings are supported by other survey questions.
Voters in Arizona and Georgia viewed Trump as more presidential than Biden (by margins of two and three percentage points, respectively). But Wisconsin said Biden was more presidential by eight points.
Robert Kennedy Jr.’s support stands at six percent in Wisconsin, eating into Trump’s vote share and helping Biden maintain his lead in the state.
And Arizona and Georgia said Trump was more in line with their priorities, by seven and eight points, respectively, while Wisconsin said Trump was more in line with their priorities, by two points.
Johnson, the pollster, said Election Day is still a long way off. And just as there were warning signs for Biden, there were potential problems ahead for Trump with RFK Jr.’s influence on his vote and Democrats’ enthusiasm for keeping him out of power.
“We believe that our poll, which forces voters to choose Someone Else before they are given RFK Jr. and other independent candidates as an option, paints a more accurate picture at this point of Kennedy’s influence—closer to five to seven percentage than double-digit votes. shares recorded in some other surveys,” he said.
RFK’s numbers in Wisconsin suggest Trump could lose vote share to independents elsewhere, too.
Then there’s the fact that Trump’s presence on the ballot could boost Democratic turnout.
“The most important issue for Democrats is not the economy, health care or any other political issue, but the need to stop Donald Trump,” he said.
“This could ultimately lead to increased Democratic turnout.”
The results have a margin of error of 4.2 percentage points.